Chilean soccer 03.11.05

(Lo siento, no he tenido tiempo de traducir al español)

Cobreloa - Colo Colo

Waiting for results of Universidad Catolica for the options of Colo Colo to take the top of the table. Yesterday, crossed trash San Felipe 5-1, and raise to 42 pts in overall table with 9 points left. Colo Colo with 35 pts and the same 9 points left (Catolica had one match less), travel to Calama, with know the minimal possibility to catch Catolica for take the "Chile 3" for Libertadores 2006.
Catolica must play in the last round against Union Española, the derby against UdeChile and Serena, the last two (maybe, because Serena is not yet) qualified to play offs and nothing to play, with all matches in the same city (Santiago). Colo Colo had to play against Cobreloa today, a hard Concepcion next in home looking qualify direct and travel in the last round to play against a hard Melipilla, maybe qualified, but hungry of points anytime to avoid relegation. I think the mind of Colo Colo forgive regular phase to thinking in play offs.
Cobreloa lives a totally different reality like other years, is in a problematic zone of group C, in 3rd position, one point under Audax. They know that get a ticket for play offs, must win this one, Audax lose in this round against Cobresal, and had the chance to take the 2nd place and pass directly to play offs. Also for them this is a derby match, a game who the fans of Cobreloa expect all year, no matter if the team go well or bad, they want win this one with no compassion. The players know that, and if they play bad by now, if they win this one, their fan forgive the bad campaign, at least for a while. For today they ha two absences, a defense (Guidi) and midfield (Moran), both replacement are a regular substitute (Gomez and Aros).
For Colo Colo, because the before says, maybe is not so motivated for this match, also, i don't see a similar expectation of a derby like Cobreloa fan&players, maybe is important one, but not a really derby, so again, is not so much motivated, at least less than Calama people. For today lose two important players, like midfield Fernandez and striker Tapia, both injury. But is the most goal score team with 41 goals in 16 matches, normally scores like guest.
For Colo Colo always is important to win, but Cobreloa is in a must win situation, also they had more motivated to win this one, the problem is the irregular (or simply bad) situation of Cobreloa. Cobreloa always had +0.25 possibilities to take advantage because their players are more naturalize with the heat and the altitude of Calama, but also Colo Colo had youth people who can develop well in adverse conditions. In 2004, Cobreloa win both matches in Calama (3:0) and (4:1), this year lose in apertura like guest in Monumental (2:0), and the last 6 times who played in Calama was and over, with 3-1-2 (15:8) for Cobreloa.
For all this, i'm tempting of take the local victory, but with more caution for the bad moment of Cobreloa i keep with the (0) for Cobreloa and the over.

Cobreloa (0) @1.943 (!!! is droping fast, a while ago was in @2.2) in 10bet stake: 5/10
Over @1.8 in Interwetten stake: 3/10
see ya, GL !!

Fútbol Chileno

La Serena - Cobreloa

La Serena después de una seguidilla de malos resultados, perdiendo incluso por 5 partidos seguidos, ha comenzado a ganar, obteniendo buenos resultados, inluyendo la victoria en el clásico regional ante Coquimbo. Desde su recuperación, ha pasado desde posiciones de descenso unas semanas atrás hasta el segundo lugar de su grupo, buscando un lugar en los play offs, y con mucha más tranquilidad con su nueva posición en la tabla del descenso, que se encuentra sobre 5 equipos antes de llegar a zona de peligro.
Cobreloa con un nuevo tecnico, todavía no despega como debería, pero de todas maneras, ha mostrado una mejora notable en el rendimiento, pero también, se sigue notando la dependencia de J.L.Diaz, que para hoy día se encuentra en condiciones despúes de una lesión que lo tuvo al margen, y a ha vuelto con 3 goles en 2 partidos. Los problemas en el comienzo del campeonato para Cobreloa lo han puesto en una difícil posición para obtener el paso a los play offs, pero sólo dependen de ellos para alcanzar a clasificar.
Bueno, los dos equipos han mostrado un mejor desempeño en las últimas semanas, también, ambos están necesitados de puntos, sumar de a uno puede significar perder la chance de los play offs, debido a lo cerrado de sus grupos. Groupo B: U.deChile 28 pts +6, Serena 20 pts +3, Everton 18 pts +1, Wanderers 18 pts -7, and Temuco 16 ptos -18. Groupo C: Cobresal 21 pts +6, Cobreloa 17 pts +2, Rangers 17 ptos -4, Audax 17 ptos -4, Palestino 15 ptos -4.
En el último mes, Serena suma una diferencia de goles de (10:5) y Cobreloa (9:5), por 4 partidos cada uno, más de 2 goles anotados y uno concedido por encuentro. Para ésta noche, Serena pierde al volante Palacios, en su reemplazo estará un juvenil en la oncena titular. Cobreloa no presenta alguna pérdida importante, y ésta noche parará al mismo equipo que derroto a Union Española a mitad de semana.
He visto que el over esta en @1.65 (interwetten), pero he encontrado una cuota muy tentadora, @2.07 para el over 2.75 y bastante buena para mi. Espero que ambos equipos luchen de principio a fin por obtener la victoria, y al menos anoten un gol cada uno, sabiendo que el empate sería como una derrota para ambos equipos.

Over 2.75 @2.07 (10bet) stake:6/10

Suerte a todos !!!